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The first one-off relegation play-off in Serie A since 2005 takes place on Sunday afternoon as both Spezia and Verona will be looking to preserve their top flight status. The match takes place at the Mapei Stadium and gets underway at 7:45pm.
Spezia
Spezia must pick themselves up having come agonisingly close to securing survival on the final day of the Serie A season. A draw against Roma would have been enough to secure their Serie A status, however, they must beat Verona in this one-off encounter at the neutral venue in order to avoid dropping into the second tier.
Match has ended
Forgetting about last weekend’s heartbreak might be easier said than done. Spezia’s form across the final few months of the campaign has been hugely underwhelming and having won just twice in 2023, fans can be forgiven for entering this contest with a pessimistic outlook. Nevertheless, Spezia’s last success came against AC Milan, proving that they’re able to turn on the style when required.
Their record against fellow bottom half dwellers is decent enough having suffered just three defeats against sides placed 12th or below. Two of those losses were decided by a single goal, suggesting that this encounter could be tight.
Ten of their 16 fixtures against sides in the bottom eight have ended all-square and it wouldn’t be surprise to see this one go all the way.
Verona
Verona were always likely to struggle on the final day of the campaign with a visit to the San Siro far from an ideal concluding fixture.
Although Verona haven’t enjoyed a particularly fruitful season, their end-of-season form has been far better than Spezia. They’ve suffered just four defeats since the beginning of April with three of those losses coming against the Milan clubs and Atalanta. They can also be forgiven for losing narrowly (1-0) to Torino.
Manager Marco Zaffaroni was pleased with his side’s performance on the final day and they can take plenty of positives into this one-off fixture. Verona have been particularly poor on their travels this season and have collected just ten points away from home. Although this is being played a neutral venue, that doesn’t necessarily help them.
Similar to Spezia, they have a decent return against bottom eight opposition, however, the majority of those points came at home. Their sole away victory came at Lecce.
Head to Head
These two sides played out a fairly predictable 0-0 draw when they last met at the beginning of March and a similar result wouldn’t be particularly surprising on Sunday afternoon.
Verona have tended to dominate this fixture historically with the Gialloblu having won nine of the last 15 meetings between the pair. Nevertheless, Spezia were victorious in Verona back in November (1-2)
Key Betting Stats
- These two teams are the second lowest and third lowest scorers in the division
- Only relegated Sampdoria have collected fewer points on the road than Verona this season.
- Spezia matches have contained an average of 2.45 goals per game this season whereas Verona have a slightly average of 2.37.
- Collectively, across their 76 matches, Spezia and Verona have netted just 27 second half goals.
- 74% of Spezia’s goal have been scored prior to the 60th minute
- The goals of Mbala N’Zala have been essential for Spezia this season. He’s netted on 13 occasions, ten more than any other player.
- Verona’s problems have come in the final third with none of their players having netted more than five times this season.
Match Prediction
This match will be extremely tense and tight and neither side will want to give much away. Spezia made themselves hard to beat when taking on bottom half opposition and Verona aren’t always easy to break down. This might not be one of the purists.
Winning Combo
Draw and Under 2.5 Goals
Odds – 12/5 with Bet365 Bet Builder
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