Newcastle vs Aston Villa Betting Preview

By Ernie Bibby, Thursday, August 10, 2023 10:29 pm

Two of last season’s top seven sides meet at St. James’ Park this weekend as Newcastle host Aston Villa on Saturday evening. This opening day PL clash gets underway at 5:30pm UK time.



Newcastle enjoyed a remarkable season last year and can look forward to European football this campaign. Despite their riches, the Magpies have strengthened sensibly this summer and under the tutelage of the meticulous Eddie Howe, they will be hoping to replicate last season’s heroics.

Combo 63
Football Newcastle United Aston Villa
Home 1.56
Draw 3.82
Away 3.98
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Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento have all arrived in the north east over the last couple of months and all three could be set for a start this weekend. Having endured injury problems in the centre of the park last season, Howe will be delighted to have far more midfield options to choose from this time around.

Joe Willock is still unavailable and Fabian Schar likely to miss this seasonal opener. Emil Krafth is also unavailable.

Newcastle turned St. James’ Park into a fortress last season and suffered just two home defeats (vs Arsenal and Liverpool). They won five of their last seven matches in front of their own fans and supporters will be hoping that their side can make a fast start in Tyneside.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa will be hoping to better their seventh place finish this season and with Unai Emery at the helm for an entire campaign, there is every chance that the Villains can improve yet again. The Spaniard turned their fortunes around and took 45 points from his 24 games in charge (1.88 PPG) which is a better record than Brighton boss Roberto di Zerbi.

Villa suffered just two defeats from February 18th onwards with both losses coming on the road by the same score-line (1-0).

There have been a number of new arrivals this summer including Diego Carlos from Sevilla and Leander Dendocker, who has moved across the Midlands. Nicolo Zaniolo is the latest name to be linked with the club, however, he is unlikely to arrival in time to face Newcastle.

Although Villa were widely praised for their results last season, their record on the road could still be improved. They failed to win any of their last four away from home with three of their last four away victories coming against struggling opposition (Southampton, Everton and Leicester).


Head to Head

These two sides faced one another in pre-season (in the USA) and played out a hugely entertaining 3-3 draw.

Last season, both home sides were victorious with Newcastle pummelling their opponents at St. James’ Park (4-0) in late October. Villa gained revenge over the Easter weekend with a convincing 3-0 victory in front of their own fans.

BTTS has only landed in one of the last six meetings between these sides.


Key Betting Stats

  • Just 27% of the last 27 meetings between these sides has featured three or more goals
  • Only four sides – Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man United – had a better home record than Newcastle last season.
  • Newcastle conceded just 14 goals across their 19 home games last season. Only Man United had a better defensive record in front of their own fans.
  • The Magpies conceded just five first half goals at St. James’ Park last season
  • Last season, 63% of Villa’s away games finished with fewer than 3 goals whereas 84% of their away games contained fewer than 4.
  • Douglas Luiz claimed six goals and six assists last season
  • Villa collected at least two yellow cards in 66% of their matches last year.


Match Prediction

This is likely to be close, however, the hosts’ imperious home record coupled with Villa’s average away record, does suggest that Newcastle could sneak a narrow victory at St. James’ Park.


Winning Combo

Newcastle to Win and Under 2.5 Goals

Odds – 10/3 with Betfair’s Bet Builder


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