Aston Villa vs Fulham Betting Preview

By Ernie Bibby, Thursday, November 9, 2023 12:05 pm

Aston Villa will be looking to get back to winning ways as they host Fulham on Sunday afternoon. This game kicks off at 2pm and takes place at Villa Park.


Aston Villa

Villa suffered an unexpected defeat last weekend and they produced a below-par display against Nottingham Forest. In Villa’s defence, The City Ground is a tricky place to visit and they struggled to get a stranglehold on the contest.

Combo 87
Football Aston Villa Fulham
Home 1.39
Draw 4.37
Away 5.05
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At home, Villa are a completely different beast. Unai Emery’s side have scored more home goals than any other PL team (20) and their home xG of 1.78 is the fifth best in the division. At the other end of the field, only Newcastle, Man City and Liverpool have conceded fewer goals on their own patch.

Despite being in Europa League action on Thursday night, Villa will be expected to get back to winning ways here. Their squad has seemingly coped admirably with the congested fixture list and with the international break on the horizon, they will want to end this section of the season on a high.

Douglas Luiz has been fantastic at Villa Park this season and he is the club’s home top-goalscorer with five. Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey have also contributed significantly.

As a result of their goalscoring exploits, Villa’s home matches have averaged 4.80 goals per game. They’ve scored at least three goals in each of their last five matches at Villa Park.



Fulham have been fairly underwhelming so far this season. Although there are arguably three worse teams than Marco Silva’s men, the Cottagers cannot afford to get too complacent.

Their away form has also been fairly poor with only Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest and Burnley having netted fewer away goals than the West Londoners. Nevertheless, they aren’t getting beaten easily with 50% of their away goals conceded coming against Manchester City. They made Spurs work for their 2-0 victory and recently held Brighton to a 1-1 draw at the AMEX.

The visitors have only actually lost twice on the road this season with both defeats coming against sides who occupy the top three.

They’ve netted five times in their last seven games and are clearly missing a focal point following the summer departure of Aleksandar Mitrovic. Bobby De-Cordova Reid is the club’s joint-top goalscorer with two goals (alongside Joao Palhinha)


Head to Head

If we completely discount their club friendly meeting this summer, then recent meetings between these two sides have been fairly split. Villa have won three of their last five with Fulham having been victorious in the remaining two fixtures.

The hosts have won the last two meetings at this venue with Tyrone Mings firing in the winner when they met here last season.

Fulham’s last victory at this ground came back in 2014 with Hugo Rodallega netting a late winner. The Cottagers did beat Villa in the 2018 Championship play-offs courtesy of a Tom Cairney strike.


Key Betting Stats

  • Fulham have averaged an away xG of just 0.99 per game.
  • The Cottagers have conceded just three first half goals away from home so far this season.
  • 23% of Aston Villa’s goals have been scored after the 81st minute.
  • Each of Villa’s five home matches have contained a minimum of four goals
  • Both of Joao Palhinha’s goals for Fulham have been scored away from home
  • Each of Douglas Luiz’s five goals have arrived at Villa Park.


Match Prediction

Villa will be expected to win this game, yet Fulham are unlikely to make it straightforward for the hosts. The Cottagers may not score many goals, but they also don’t concede many on their travels. This might be tighter than expected.


Winning Combo

Villa to Win by a 1 Goal Margin

5/2 with Betfair


Best Bookmaker

We recommend using Betfair for betting on this weekend’s fixtures. Their popular Bet Builder allows you to build your own match accumulator by combining a range of different markets. This is how we have created our winning combo for this game.

If you haven’t already signed up to Betfair, you can also get £30 in free bets when you sign up and bet £10 on the Sportsbook.